How Many Lanes In The Vanity Expressway?

I hate to invoke the wrath of the political party that brought us Freedom Fries, but some quotes are just better in the original French: "Ils n'ont rien appris, ni rien oublie." Talleyrand probably didn't actually say it, but looking at the widening field of the 2024 Republican Primary, it's apt: "They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing."

A quote from Harry S. Truman also floated by on my Twitter feed that feels apt as well: "My choice early in life was either to be a piano player in a whorehouse or a politician. And to tell the truth, there's hardly any difference."

The war between political instincts and pure vanity must be difficult for the politicians of today. I, and I expect many other voters would give a lot to have a politician with the self-awareness of Truman but many of us probably wish the Republican field didn't appear to be so eager to repeat, much like the Bourbons in exile in post-Revolutionary France, their mistakes-- in the case of the Republican Party, the mistake of 2016.

Chris Sununu deserves full credit: he is taking a pass on the Presidential race. I don't know much about the guy, but from what I've seen of him, he seemed like the capital 'A' Adult in the Room that many people are looking for. 

But what's the excuse for the rest of these people? All of a sudden, it's like some kind of bell has been rung and everyone seems to be jumping into the race. Trump, Haley, and Scott were already in. DeSantis made it official late last month. Pence is getting in. Chris Christie is rumored to be launching as well as Doug Burgum. (And if you, like me, said "Who's Doug Burgum?" well, he's the Governor of North Dakota.)

(In addition, there are Ryan Binkley (who?), Larry Elder, Asa Hutchinson (forgot about him), Perry Johnson, and Vivek Ramaswamy are also apparently running for President. Glenn Youngkin is officially focused on the House of Delegates races in Virginia but has released something that looks awfully like a test balloon, so I wouldn't count him out either.)

Just how many lanes do they think there are in the vanity expressway? The field is already crowded enough with just Trump in the race-- even if he's lost some of the magic of 2016 he still contains multitudes all by himself. Ron DeSantis- as much as I hate typing the rest of this sentence out is a serious player in the Republican Party. Whether the rocky start to his campaign convinced would-be challengers that there was blood in the water and therefore a window for them to take their shot, I don't know, but the vast majority of these people aren't going to be the Republican nominee and there's a decent chance none of them will be President either.

(If you think this is a problem just for Republicans, think again: the non-race and 'not gonna happen' race on the Democratic side keeps getting increasingly difficult to ignore. RFK Jr is pulling numbers. Marianne Williamson is still running. Cornel West announced he's jumping in for the People's Party- and I checked out his website. It's progressive, but not insane, which could be interesting. The Vice President keeps having these weird word salad moments that go viral, so the hopes of the Republic and the Democratic Party apparently rest on the shoulders of an 82-year-old man.)

Everyone seems to think it's Trump or DeSantis. That's probably true, but I'm not convinced. Trump's legal troubles- whether you think they're real or imagined are mounting. 

DeSantis can conceivably lay claim to the mantle of 'Diet Trump' but the problem is that the War on Woke can probably get you the Republican nomination, but it could well be a large liability in the general election. I think in the immediate aftermath of COVID and 2020, the 'war on woke' gave the right a lot of mileage. If voters' enthusiasm for it has peaked, then DeSantis could flame out in a spectacular way- assuming he's unable to articulate a larger vision for the country as a whole. He has to show voters he's more than his 'War on Woke' and I'm not convinced (right now) that he can.

So that leaves the rest of the field. 

Nikki Haley, if she can make it to the fall, could go the distance and get to actual voters. Whether she goes much further than that, I don't know. 

Tim Scott's personal story and optimistic vision for America remain compelling and full credit to him for going on The View, because it worked for him, but I have yet to be convinced. I can't find a website with any issues- just a donor page.

Mike Pence, I'm not entirely sure what he's doing. If Tim Scott falters, he could move into that 'lane' quite nicely, but he's never been what I'd call charismatic- which made him an ideal Vice-President.

Chris Christie is probably banking on poll data that's telling him Republican voters want a fighter and for sure, he'd be a bare-knuckle boxer in the race. He'll also probably do the eventual nominee a favor and shank someone on national television. (I saw someone saying that his real shot was probably 2012 and upon reflection, I think I kind of agree with that, but we'll see.)

I'm really hoping that Doug Burgum proves to be the Mike Gravel of this race and just says crotchety, irritable things on a debate stage that are fundamentally true. 

The question as we head into summer seems to be: If not Trump, then DeSantis, if not DeSantis, then who? If either of them falters then someone has to emerge from the rest of the field-- and I really do think Glenn Youngkin bears watching. He might not get in and focus on making the most of his term as Governor, but if he does... 

(Of course, everything I've just written is probably going to be wrong and money and events and viral video clips and fevered speculation will all come down to Trump or DeSantis in the end so what everyone thought was an expressway will turn out to be just a divided highway.)