Balkanization of the United States: A Strategy of Our Enemies
In recent years, discussions about the potential balkanization of the United States have become more frequent, not just among fringe groups but also in geopolitical circles. Foreign powers and adversaries of the U.S. have recognized that one of the most effective ways to weaken America is not through direct confrontation, but through internal division. Some of these enemies openly express the belief that the best way to limit American power on the world stage is to convince the U.S. to fracture from within, leading to the breakdown of national unity—a process often referred to as "balkanization."
What is Balkanization?
Balkanization is a term originally used to describe the division of the Balkan Peninsula into smaller, hostile states in the early 20th century, but it has since come to represent the fragmentation of any large political entity into smaller, often mutually antagonistic regions or factions. In the case of the United States, balkanization would mean the splintering of the country along racial, ethnic, cultural, political, or geographic lines, resulting in diminished national cohesion and weakening of the federal government’s ability to lead both domestically and globally.
Open Discussion by Foreign Adversaries
Foreign adversaries like Russia, China, and even certain non-state actors have openly and sometimes not so subtly encouraged U.S. balkanization. Russian strategists have been particularly candid, with the Russian philosopher and political theorist Alexander Dugin advocating for the breakup of the United States into regional entities. They argue that for the good of the world—where U.S. influence is perceived as dominant and destabilizing—getting the country to splinter would reduce its global power.
Chinese strategists have similarly discussed how an internally divided United States would be less capable of challenging China’s rise. Some of these arguments have found their way into public discourse through state-sponsored media and disinformation campaigns aimed at sowing division. By amplifying and encouraging internal discord, they hope to push the U.S. toward a point of irreconcilable fracture.
The Strategy to Encourage U.S. Balkanization
The strategy to encourage U.S. balkanization is multifaceted and deeply psychological. It plays on existing tensions within American society, exacerbating them with the goal of triggering self-destructive fragmentation. Here are key reasons why this strategy is not only plausible but actively being pursued by America’s adversaries:
1. Exploiting Racial and Ethnic Divides
Racial and ethnic tensions in the U.S. have been a long-standing issue, and foreign powers see this as fertile ground for sowing division. The rise of identity politics and movements that emphasize division based on race and ethnicity provide an opportunity for adversaries to exploit these fault lines. Disinformation campaigns aimed at stoking racial animosity, whether through inflamed rhetoric or false information, are designed to deepen distrust among different racial groups. The goal is to erode the idea of a united national identity, pushing various factions to see themselves as fundamentally incompatible with each other.
2. Amplifying Political Polarization
The United States is more politically polarized today than at any time in recent history, and this division is not an accident. Foreign powers have recognized that feeding into political extremism on both the left and right can drive the country toward irreparable political conflict. Through cyber warfare and social media disinformation campaigns, adversaries have actively sought to amplify extreme voices and narratives that depict political opponents as existential threats to the nation. By intensifying political tribalism, they hope to weaken democratic institutions and make compromise impossible.
3. Exploiting Economic Inequality
Economic inequality in the U.S. provides another avenue for balkanization. Foreign actors can exploit economic grievances to drive a wedge between different regions and classes. By encouraging narratives that pit rural America against urban elites, or by inflaming resentment between different economic classes, adversaries can erode trust in national governance. The result is a fragmented society where individuals no longer see themselves as part of a common cause but instead align with regional or class-based identities.
4. Regional Tensions and Secessionist Movements
Regional tensions in the U.S., such as those between coastal and heartland states, have historically been a point of division, but recent years have seen a growing number of secessionist movements gain traction. States like California and Texas, both of which have strong regional identities, have seen renewed interest in the idea of breaking away from the federal government. While these movements are not yet mainstream, foreign powers have taken notice and actively encourage these divisions. An internally fragmented U.S. made up of semi-autonomous regions would be far easier for adversaries to influence and manipulate.
5. Cultural and Ideological Divides
Foreign powers are also keenly aware of the cultural divides within the United States. The ongoing culture wars, ranging from issues of gender identity to debates over free speech and religion, provide yet another avenue for division. By amplifying extreme cultural positions and fostering a sense of mutual alienation between different ideological groups, adversaries hope to undermine the possibility of a shared national culture. When cultural identities become irreconcilable, the path toward national fragmentation becomes more likely.
Why the Balkanization of the U.S. is a Desired Outcome
For America’s adversaries, balkanization would be a strategic victory. A fractured U.S. would have diminished capacity to project power globally and would be consumed with its own internal conflicts. Here are key reasons why foreign powers are actively promoting this strategy:
Weakened Global Influence: A balkanized U.S. would be less capable of intervening in global conflicts or asserting its influence in international institutions. This would allow adversaries like China and Russia to expand their power without facing significant resistance from the West.
Reduced Economic Power: A fractured United States would also suffer economically. Regional entities would have less ability to coordinate trade policies, maintain infrastructure, or compete with global powers. Foreign adversaries could exploit these economic vulnerabilities to increase their own influence over critical global markets.
Diminished Military Capability: The U.S. military, one of the most powerful in the world, would be weakened by internal division. A balkanized country might see individual regions unwilling to contribute to national defense, and this would significantly reduce America’s ability to respond to global threats. Foreign powers could take advantage of this power vacuum to assert dominance in key regions.
Increased Vulnerability to Foreign Influence: Smaller, divided regions would be more susceptible to foreign influence. Without a strong central government to provide national security, adversarial powers could more easily manipulate individual regions, influencing their politics, economy, and international relations.
Conclusion: A Call to Recognize the Threat
The balkanization of the United States is a real and present danger. Foreign powers openly discuss their desire to see the U.S. weaken from within, and they are actively pursuing strategies to exacerbate existing tensions. For the good of the world, as they frame it, they seek a future where the U.S. is no longer a dominant power.
As citizens, it is crucial to recognize these efforts and resist the forces that seek to divide us. Unity, even in the face of deep differences, is the best defense against foreign efforts to weaken the United States. The enemy knows that a divided America is a weakened America—and they are counting on us to do their work for them.