The Risks of a Collapsed Russia: How the U.S. Could Face a Stronger China

As the war in Ukraine drags on, there is a growing sentiment among some policymakers and commentators that the United States should continue arming Ukraine, with the hope that the strain will lead to the collapse of Russia. While this perspective might seem attractive to those seeking to neutralize a historic adversary, it is critical to examine the broader consequences of such a scenario. A collapsed Russia would likely empower China—America’s primary geopolitical rival—and destabilize the global order in ways that would harm U.S. interests.

What Happens if Russia Collapses?

If Russia were to splinter into multiple independent states, the immediate consequences would be felt in Eurasia, but the ripple effects would extend across the globe. Key outcomes of such a collapse include:

• Nuclear Proliferation Risks: Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal could fall into the hands of rogue states or non-state actors.
• Regional Instability: Newly-formed states would struggle to establish governance, potentially leading to conflicts, migration crises, and economic instability.
• Power Vacuums: Regions formerly under Russian influence, such as Central Asia and the Caucasus, would become battlegrounds for competing powers.

Why China Would Benefit the Most

1. Access to Resources in Siberia

The Russian Far East and Siberia are resource-rich regions with sparse populations. A fragmented Russia would struggle to defend these territories, opening the door for China to exert influence or even claim control. With access to vast reserves of oil, gas, and rare earth metals, China’s economic and military power would grow significantly.

2. Energy Leverage

China is one of Russia’s largest energy consumers. A collapse of the Russian state would allow Beijing to dominate energy negotiations with newly-formed states, securing resources at highly favorable terms or outright control over critical infrastructure.

3. Geopolitical Dominance in Eurasia

Russia’s collapse would leave a vacuum in Eurasia, enabling China to expand its Belt and Road Initiative unopposed. Beijing could consolidate its influence in Central Asia, effectively sidelining U.S. and European interests in the region.

Why a Collapsed Russia Is Bad for the U.S.

1. Strengthening America’s Primary Rival

The U.S. has identified China as its most significant long-term strategic competitor. A weakened Russia would allow China to consolidate power in Eurasia, making it a more formidable adversary in the global balance of power. The U.S. would trade one adversary for an even greater threat.

2. Global Instability

The disintegration of Russia would destabilize Eurasia, leading to civil wars, ethnic conflicts, and economic disruptions. Such instability would require significant U.S. resources to manage, detracting from efforts to counter China’s global ambitions.

3. Nuclear Security Risks

Russia possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. The collapse of its central government would create a nightmare scenario in which nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of rogue states, terrorist groups, or criminal organizations.

4. Economic Disruptions

Russia is a major global exporter of energy, food, and raw materials. Its collapse would disrupt supply chains, causing shortages and price increases that would harm the global economy, including the U.S.

What War Hawks Overlook

Advocates for continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine, with the hope of precipitating Russia’s collapse, underestimate the broader consequences. While it might weaken Moscow in the short term, it would likely result in:

• A Stronger China: China would emerge as the dominant power in Eurasia, free from Russian competition and bolstered by access to resources and new markets.
• A Strained NATO: The U.S. and its European allies would be forced to manage the instability in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, stretching resources thin.
• Unpredictable Threats: Fragmented Russian states could align with U.S. adversaries like China, Iran, or North Korea, complicating diplomatic and military strategies.

The U.S. Must Avoid Shortsighted Strategy

While supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression is important, policymakers must consider the long-term implications of their actions. Pushing for Russia’s collapse without a clear plan for managing the aftermath risks empowering China and destabilizing the global order.

Instead, the U.S. should pursue strategies that:

1. Contain Russia Without Collapse: Weaken Moscow strategically while ensuring it remains intact enough to counterbalance China.
2. Strengthen Alliances: Bolster NATO and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific to counterbalance China’s growing power.
3. Mitigate Risks: Work with international partners to secure Russia’s nuclear arsenal and manage potential crises in newly-formed states.

Conclusion

The idea of Russia’s collapse as a win for the United States is a dangerous oversimplification. While war hawks might see an opportunity to neutralize an adversary, the long-term consequences could strengthen America’s greatest geopolitical rival—China. A strategy that prioritizes stability and balance in Eurasia is essential to securing U.S. interests and maintaining global order.