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Political Fraud, Political Capital, and Why “The Lady’s Not For Turning”

Craig Hutchinson (context, nuance, free speech, privacy)Aug 21, 2020, 1:04:56 AM

When the New Zealand government panicked over the Covid-19 virus and locked down the country on 25 March, they were at least able to present a coherent narrative. They were able to whip-up fear of the unknown based on the media’s deathporn around what had happened on a few cruise ships, and what was happening in Wuhan and Italy. It was enough to make enough of the population worried enough (I know, enough ‘enoughs’) to risk their jobs, businesses, savings, mortgages, mental health, education opportunities, and futures. If they had known that’s what they were risking? I don’t recall that conversation.

On 23 March, two days before New Zealand was placed into lockdown, The Journal of the American Medical Association published Case-Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Relation to COVID-19 in Italy. It was the first real data from Italy’s outbreak that was still enthralling the world’s media, politicians, and citizens. The authors were from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, the leading technical-scientific body of the Italian National Health Service. This paper showed clearly that Italian fatality data was strongly indicating Covid-19 was not dangerous to most of the population. Reported deaths (of 1625 Covid-19 total reported deaths) by age-range were:

0 – 29 (0.0%)
30 – 39 (0.3%)
40 – 49 (0.6%)
50 – 59 (2.7%)
60 – 69 (8.6%)
70 – 79 (35.6%)
>= 80 (52.3%)

Or put another way:

0 – 59 (3.6%)
>= 60 (96.5%) [I know this adds to 100.1; those are the numbers in the paper]

Though Italy was being reported as having a higher death rate than other countries, the authors proposed the higher death rate was linked to:

1. population age,
2. the definition of Covid-19 deaths (which differed from other countries),
3. the “differing strategies used for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing”.

They had correctly identified all the key issues.

The authors concluded “the current data illustrate that Italy has a high proportion of older patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection and that the older population in Italy may partly explain differences in cases and case-fatality rates among countries ... deaths are mainly observed among older, male patients who also have multiple comorbidities.”

So it was clear in late March. Protect the elderly and other vulnerable people? Yes. Encourage physical distancing? In March when there was less certainty? Yes. In August when all the relevant information is in? No. Lockdown our entire society? No way. Not in late March. Not now.

It is impossible to believe this paper was not available to New Zealand’s Ministry of Health (MoH). This is one of the world’s most important English language medical publications, and MoH staff would have been scanning it daily for Covid-19 research data. There can be no doubt about this. It is also safe to assume this information was passed up the chain of command and made available to the Minister of Health, and therefore to the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Civil servants withhold critical information from the Minister at their own peril, and no senior civil servant is going to risk their long-striven-for and well paid career by withholding material like this. So we can accept the MOH passed the information to the Minister.

Government Fraud?

What did the government do with this information?

Nothing. They ignored it and commenced the greatest fraud perpetuated on the New Zealand people in recent times.

This information should have given decision-makers pause; decision-makers who were considering the most extreme authoritarian and disruptive actions in modern NZ history; actions being considered in the name of individual ‘healthcare’; actions with far reaching negative consequences. That is, it would have given pause to calm, rational decision-makers. Unfortunately we don’t have decision-makers with these qualities in New Zealand. Instead they proceeded to lay down on NZ citizens the most draconian measures possible and created a proto-police-state.

This was in March remember. We’re now in August, and the government is still perpetuating this fraud; myths of covid-danger, covid-fear, covid-elimination, covid-suppression, covid-lockdown etc. spill from their mouths on a daily basis. They are still doing this despite the overwhelming quantity of quality, peer-reviewed research and data which clearly shows:

1. Covid-19 is not dangerous for most people and we have some natural immunity because of our T-cells, antibodies, and from exposure to the corona viruses that already circulate (here, here, here and here).

2. The fatality profile and death-rate is similar to seasonal influenza (here).

3. Suppression and elimination is neither possible nor necessary (here).

4. Lockdowns don't achieve anything except cause enormous harm (here).

5. There is no statistically useful safety gain in wearing a mask and evidence of harm (here and here).

Why is the Government sticking to their story?

Former British Prime Minister Margret Thatcher famously said in a 1980 speech in response to calls for her to do a "U-turn" from her neoliberalisation of the UK economy that

the Lady’s not for turning

Thatcher and the Conservative Party had all their political capital invested in their neoliberal economic programme; they knew if they turned away from it they would be unelectable for half a generation. New Zealand has a Prime Minister and a Labour Party who now find themselves in the same position (ironically the same Party who introduced neoliberalism into New Zealand four years after Thatcher's speech).

The NZ Prime Minister has all her credibility resting on New Zealanders believing that the government's actions have not been a major cock-up; are not the worst policy actions ever taken for all New Zealanders; are not policy actions that have harmed more people than ever before, worse even than their neoliberal disaster of the 1980s. So they can’t change their narrative. It would be electorally fatal.

This is why the Government refuses to test for Covid-19 prevalence; because then New Zealanders will likely discover what the rest of the world who is doing this testing is discovering. That the Covid-19 virus has already passed through the population and most people didn't even know they had it.

The names Jacinda Ardern, Megan Woods, Chris Hipkins, David Parker etc. will be poison in the mouths of the Millenial generation and their children, just like the names of their neoliberal predecessors (Roger Douglas, Richard Prebble, Ruth Richardson etc.) are poison in the mouths of so many of their parents and grandparents. It’s just a matter of time. Labour must retain control of this narrative at least until after the election; they know they’ll be unelectible once the inevitable happens and they lose control of the story. Their only option is to double-down on the message. Hence the new Auckland lockdown.

This is why “the Lady’s not for turning”.

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